Economist
Oliver’s insights – five charts on investing to keep in mind in rough times like now
30 March
Key points – Successful investing can be really difficult in times like now with immense uncertainty around inflation, interest rates, issues in global banks and recession risks impacting the outlook for investment markets. – This makes it all...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – have Australian home prices bottomed? Probably not.
23 March
Key points – Capital city property prices so far in March are on track for a 0.6% or so gain, led by Sydney, based on CoreLogic data. – The main positives for the residential property market are improving demographic demand, constrained supply...[Read More]
Shares hit another bout of turbulence
16 March
US banks, inflation, interest rates and recession risk – what it means for investors? Key points: – US regional bank failures have added to uncertainty about the investment outlook flowing from inflation & rate hikes. – Specific issues with...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – nine key lessons for today from the 1970s, 80s and 90s
2 March
Key points – The experience of the high inflation 1970s and its aftermath hold key lessons for today. In particular, that once high inflation becomes entrenched in expectations that it will stay high, inflation is very hard to get back down but...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – seven key charts for investors to keep an eye on
23 February
Key points – We are reasonably upbeat on the outlook for investment markets this year, but it won’t be smooth sailing and after a strong start to the year share markets are vulnerable to a further pull back in the short term given ongoing...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – the RBA hikes rates by another 0.25% – are we there yet?
9 February
Key points – The RBA hiked again by 0.25% taking the cash rate to 3.35%. It continues to expect to increase interest rates further. -We remain of the view the cash rate is near the top as: rate hikes impact with a lag; inflationary pressures are...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – Australian v global shares
2 February
Key points – The underperformance of Australian versus global shares since 2009 reflects a combination of tighter monetary policy, the strong $A into 2011, the slump in commodity prices, property crash phobia and classic mean reversion. –...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – macro investment outlook
18 January
Key points – 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. – 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022...[Read More]
Review of 2022, outlook for 2023. Expect a rough ride but ultimately better returns
22 December
Key points – 2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. – 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – 2022 review & 2023 outlook
15 December
2022 was dominated by high inflation, rising interest rates, war in Ukraine & recession fears. This hit bonds & shares hard, driving losses for balanced growth super funds. 2023 is likely to remain volatile and a retest of 2022 lows for shares is...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – the slump in home prices continues
8 December
Key points – Australian national average home prices fell another 1% in November and are now down by 6.9% from their high, having seen their steepest fall in the last forty years. – Rising mortgage rates are the main driver of the slump and...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – medium term inflation pressures & implications for investors
1 December
Key points – The surge in inflation should start to reverse next year. – However, five structural trends suggest higher medium term inflation pressures than pre-pandemic. These are: a move away from economic rationalist policies; the reversal...[Read More]
Oliver’s Insights – Shares may have bottomed
17 November
Key points Given recession and geopolitical risks, the ride for shares may still remain choppy and new lows can’t be ruled out. But the increasing evidence of a peak in US inflation (which will lead Australian inflation), central banks...[Read More]
Oliver’s insights – seven reasons why Australia should be able to avoid a recession
9 November
Key points The combination of cost-of-living pressures, sharp interest rate hikes and a global downturn point to a sharp slowing in the Australian economy next year, with consumer confidence at recessionary levels. However, there are several...[Read More]
The October 2022-23 Australian Budget
26 October
Key points Yet another revenue windfall and the offsetting of new spending with savings has resulted in sharply lower budget deficits this year and next, with the deficit this year expected to be $36.9bn (down from $78bn in March). This avoids...[Read More]